Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?

The Republican contract has surged 71% over seven days to 65¢, suggesting significant new information favoring GOP prospects in this Colorado district, though the extremely tight 11¢ spread and minimal $1.63 daily volume indicate shallow liquidity that may not support the price discovery. The No side's 337% implied yield is notably inflated relative to the Yes side's 98%, a classic sign of illiquid markets where the minority position commands outsized returns; combined with the 849% realized volatility and 7.42 vol ratio, this market appears prone to sharp reversals on limited order flow rather than fundamental shifts in race dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. If no winner is announced by November 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade