Will the Democratic Party win the CO-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme skew with a 91¢ Democratic lean, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $16.4K open interest suggest minimal liquidity despite the tight 2¢ spread. The implied yield for a "No" position reaches an extraordinary 1,845%, indicating severe underpricing of the Republican outcome—a classic liquidity trap where the low probability reflects lack of betting interest rather than genuine conviction. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market appears to be a low-activity Democratic stronghold bet rather than an active price discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade