Will the Democratic Party win the CT-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme conviction in Democratic retention of Connecticut's 2nd district, with a 92¢ price implying a 92% win probability, though the zero 24-hour volume raises questions about whether this reflects genuine market activity or stale pricing. The massive 2099.6% implied yield on the "No" outcome is a classic artifact of pricing near certainty—it reflects the tiny $0.08 ask spread rather than realistic upside potential. With 200 days to expiration and only $19.8k open interest, liquidity is thin enough that any significant political shift in the district could produce sharp repricing, though the neutral regime score suggests current conditions aren't signaling imminent volatility.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade