What is the current probability for "Donald Trump and John Thune meet before May 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 1 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Donald Trump and John Thune meet before May 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 3699.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Donald Trump and John Thune meet before May 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Donald Trump and John Thune meet before May 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Donald Trump and John Thune meet before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,107.55 open interest, suggesting traders are holding positions but unwilling to transact at current prices.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 8/9¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,251.35·OI $2,481.44·Closes May 1, 2026·1d remaining

KXTRUMPMEET-26APR-JTHU

7-day price193 snapshots · 30 regime

91¢8¢ current

Apr 94¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,107.55 open interest, suggesting traders are holding positions but unwilling to transact at current prices. The 75¢ price has declined sharply from 91¢ over seven days, indicating growing skepticism about a Trump-Thune meeting occurring within the next two weeks, though the astronomical 8205% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the tiny $0.25 spread and minimal liquidity rather than genuine conviction. With only 14 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this market faces significant binary resolution risk where late-breaking news could trigger sudden repricing.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump and John Thune meet (including phone calls) before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 3699.2%

Adj IY 87500%

CRI 12

RV 6235%

VR 0.84

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3699.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	87500%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	6235%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.84	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/30/2026, 7:34:09 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 7:23:56 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPMEET-26APR-JTHU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →