What is the current probability for "Will Armenia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 16, 2026. 24 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Armenia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 48845.9% and 46.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Armenia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Armenia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Armenia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. Armenia's last-place probability has collapsed 57% in seven days (from 7¢ to 3¢), yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume and a wide 4¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity despite $3.3M open interest.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 1/4¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $24.014·OI $3,796.226·Closes May 16, 2026·24d remaining

0x62cbf15bfb0e76dd011193241959d92dac3747cfca943c58243b39e67b7b3407

7-day price99 snapshots · 5 regime

13¢3¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

Armenia's last-place probability has collapsed 57% in seven days (from 7¢ to 3¢), yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume and a wide 4¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity despite $3.3M open interest. The extreme 41,116% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the mathematical artifact of pricing near zero rather than genuine opportunity, and with 29 days to Eurovision 2026, the neutral regime score (0.341) indicates low conviction among traders on directional movement.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 48845.9%

IY (No) 46.7%

Adj IY 24423%

CRI 32

Overround 0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	48845.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	46.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	24423%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:28:40 PM

Observability lowEvent type cultural

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x62cbf15bfb0e76dd011193241959d92dac3747cfca943c58243b39e67b7b3407 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →