Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

This market shows extreme yield asymmetry (4375% for Yes vs 436% for No) despite Austria's modest 23¢ price, suggesting the market is pricing in very low probability of last place but with significant uncertainty around Eurovision outcomes. The 791% realized volatility and 6¢ spread indicate substantial disagreement among traders, though the $5.25 daily volume is concerningly thin for an $11.7k open interest position, creating potential liquidity risk as the May 16 expiry approaches in just 26 days. The 2.9 info arrivals per hour and neutral regime suggest active repricing as Eurovision 2026 details emerge, making this a speculative position rather than a settled market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade