Will Estonia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Estonia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. Estonia's 6¢ price reflects a 6% probability of last place, but the extreme 20,681% implied yield on "Yes" signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction—the $5,572 open interest against only $13.61 in 24-hour volume suggests minimal trading activity.
Analysis
Estonia's 6¢ price reflects a 6% probability of last place, but the extreme 20,681% implied yield on "Yes" signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction—the $5,572 open interest against only $13.61 in 24-hour volume suggests minimal trading activity. The 11¢ spread is exceptionally wide, and the 1,386% realized volatility indicates this market has experienced wild price swings, likely driven by thin order books rather than fundamental shifts in Eurovision odds. With 28 days to close and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, traders should be cautious about the reliability of any position given the market's structural fragility.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xa642571101e142f9aacfb90fca31ab1de09c2b6c4cb1c3f3cbc1da1635350c39 yes 100