Will Latvia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Latvia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 9% probability on Latvia placing last, yet the Yes side offers an astronomical 17,950% implied yield—a massive red flag suggesting either a liquidity trap or structural arbitrage opportunity.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 9% probability on Latvia placing last, yet the Yes side offers an astronomical 17,950% implied yield—a massive red flag suggesting either a liquidity trap or structural arbitrage opportunity. The 16¢ spread is extraordinarily wide relative to the 9¢ price, and with only $1.98 in 24-hour volume against $4.7M open interest, the market is severely illiquid, making the theoretical yield largely unrealizable. With 27 days to Eurovision 2026 and a realized volatility of 1,936%, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently priced prediction.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
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Trade
sf trade 0xff45693dc44a1a24491fac4720b8d337ddb03529a7da14742e053eb394f9e79e yes 100