What is the current probability for "Will Moldova come in last place at Eurovision 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 2¢ (2% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 16, 2026. 24 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Moldova come in last place at Eurovision 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 48845.9% and 46.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Moldova come in last place at Eurovision 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Moldova come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Moldova come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026.

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2¢

Bid/Ask 1/3¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $22.9·OI $4,316.659·Closes May 16, 2026·24d remaining

0x79f1de61cedea6f46b4b3d6f1c63ada8c5938724570d26a00009adfa306f638a

7-day price279 snapshots · 3 regime

9¢2¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 48845.9%

IY (No) 46.7%

Adj IY 48846%

CRI 32

RV 2968%

VR 1.65

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	48845.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	46.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	48846%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2968%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.65	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:28:21 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x79f1de61cedea6f46b4b3d6f1c63ada8c5938724570d26a00009adfa306f638a yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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