Will Norway come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Norway come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 6¢ price generating a nonsensical 20,457% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting either a liquidity trap or data anomaly given the minimal $28.31 daily volume and wide 10¢ spread.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 6¢ price generating a nonsensical 20,457% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting either a liquidity trap or data anomaly given the minimal $28.31 daily volume and wide 10¢ spread. The 1,051% realized volatility and high cliff risk index (16) indicate this is a highly illiquid, speculative position where even small trades could trigger massive price swings, making the 6% probability unreliable as a true market consensus. With 28 days to resolution and only $4.1k open interest, traders should treat this as a low-confidence market dominated by noise rather than informed betting.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x7a1959a91c1fb977e1dcc76b0e072adb64dad8d8799d8f8fe047e0bb9dd7967d yes 100