What is the current probability for "Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 6, 2026. 228 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5172.7% and 4.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing December 6, 2026.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 3/3¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $26,065.419·OI $129,065.144·Closes Dec 6, 2026·228d remaining

0x2cefe6009ea518f77b8a82714e54c0af1d0f25e99b37d4861f4a5d3ebbf142d3

7-day price19 snapshots · 126 regime

4¢3¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 18

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5172.7%

IY (No) 4.9%

Adj IY 2586%

CRI 32

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5172.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2586%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:26:45 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x2cefe6009ea518f77b8a82714e54c0af1d0f25e99b37d4861f4a5d3ebbf142d3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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