Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing FL-02 as heavily favored at 85¢ with a tight 1¢ spread, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with the No side offering a 1034.6% implied yield versus just 32.2% for Yes, suggesting significant uncertainty despite the high Republican probability. With zero 24-hour volume on $17.7M open interest and 200 days to expiration, liquidity appears concentrated and potentially stale, making the 85¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 combined with the massive yield disparity warrants caution—this could indicate either mispricing or illiquidity masking true market sentiment on what should be a relatively straightforward 2026 midterm race.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade