Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?

The Republican contract is priced at a substantial 83¢ with an extremely asymmetric risk profile, where "No" holders face a punishing 891% implied yield versus just 37.4% for "Yes" holders—a 24x differential that suggests the market has heavily priced in Republican dominance in FL-04. With 200 days to expiry, $13M in open interest, and flat price action over the past week, this appears to be a settled market with minimal conviction for movement, though the modest $2.1M daily volume and tight 2¢ spread indicate reasonable liquidity for a district-level race. The extreme cliff risk index of 5 paired with the lopsided yield structure warns that any significant polling shift or demographic change could trigger sharp repricing, making this a high-conviction Republican bet rather than a balanced two-way market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade