Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 73¢ reflects strong confidence in a party flip in FL-09, though the extreme 493.5% implied yield on the No side signals substantial uncertainty among contrarian bettors willing to take that risk. The market has surged 14 cents over seven days amid what appears to be elevated information arrival (1.7 events/hour) and exceptional realized volatility of 1443%, suggesting recent polling or candidate developments are driving repricing rather than stable consensus. With $12.9M in open interest but only $106.4 in daily volume and a 2¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential execution challenges for larger traders despite the tight bid-ask.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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