Will the Democratic Party win the FL-10 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing FL-10 as heavily favored at 87¢, but the market shows critical liquidity concerns with zero 24-hour volume despite $12K open interest and a wide 3¢ spread. The extreme asymmetry in implied yields—27.3% for Yes versus 1,221% for No—signals severe mispricing or illiquidity risk, with the No side offering outsized returns that likely reflect the difficulty of actually executing a contrarian position rather than genuine probability. With 200 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this market warrants caution for position-takers given the potential for sharp repricing once actual campaign dynamics emerge closer to the 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade