Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat?

This market displays extreme mispricing with an 8¢ Democratic price generating a 2,098.6% implied yield on the Yes side—a red flag for either severe illiquidity or structural market dysfunction. The $25,185 open interest vastly dwarfs the $13 daily volume, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and may reflect stale pricing from when the market was created rather than current consensus. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the 12 cliff risk index warrants caution, as late-breaking political developments in FL-12 could trigger sharp repricing if this thin market suddenly needs to clear.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade