Will the Democratic Party win the FL-18 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a Democratic win probability priced at just 8¢ despite FL-18 being a historically competitive district, generating an implausible 2098.6% implied yield on the Yes side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $19.9M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a stale or illiquid position where the price may not reflect current political fundamentals heading into the 2026 cycle. With 200 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 12, the market carries significant tail risk, though the neutral regime score indicates no immediate directional pressure.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade