Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing August 18, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2670% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a significant analytical edge—the $0 24-hour volume against $12.5M open interest indicates the market is essentially frozen with a wide 2¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2670% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a significant analytical edge—the $0 24-hour volume against $12.5M open interest indicates the market is essentially frozen with a wide 2¢ spread. The 10% price has drifted up 1¢ over seven days despite no trading activity, and with 123 days to the August 2026 primary, the cliff risk index of 9 suggests sharp repricing is likely once the market becomes active or new information emerges. The asymmetric yields (2670% vs 33%) indicate strong market skepticism about Oberweis's nomination chances, though the lack of liquidity makes this probability estimate unreliable.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0x036154c1906c2abd61a65bc585832e0ef8bdc7795cd05b56a1b5bb96c01e3744 yes 100