Will the Democratic Party win the FL-28 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1121% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting Democratic chances in FL-28 are dramatically undervalued at 14¢ despite the seat's competitive history. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $15.8M open interest indicates severe liquidity constraints that likely explain the distorted pricing, making this a potentially high-risk arbitrage opportunity dependent on whether the market can normalize before the November 2026 resolution. The modest 1¢ spread and neutral regime score provide little additional conviction, though the recent 1¢ price decline warrants monitoring for directional sentiment shifts over the next 200 days.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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