Will the Republican Party win the FL-28 House seat?

Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will the Republican Party win the FL-28 House seat?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.

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84¢
Bid/Ask 83/84¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $24,290.24·Closes Nov 3, 2026·195d remaining
0xcf18499f0f41d354b9eb2a7f2d7d900efdda2ac535c2341c2d44e3dab3d811a1
7-day price10 snapshots · 2 regime
85¢84¢ current
Apr 1084¢Apr 18

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 35.6%
IY (No) 981.9%
Adj IY 491%
CRI 5
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)35.6%
IY (No)981.9%
Adj IY491%
CRI5

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:26:09 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xcf18499f0f41d354b9eb2a7f2d7d900efdda2ac535c2341c2d44e3dab3d811a1 yes 100

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