Will Patrick Farrell be the Republican nominee for GA-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Patrick Farrell be the Republican nominee for GA-01?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Patrick Farrell's odds have collapsed 75% over the past week (from 8¢ to 2¢), suggesting significant negative information arrived about his candidacy, though the extremely thin $6.68 daily volume raises questions about price reliability.
Analysis
Patrick Farrell's odds have collapsed 75% over the past week (from 8¢ to 2¢), suggesting significant negative information arrived about his candidacy, though the extremely thin $6.68 daily volume raises questions about price reliability. The astronomical 36,042% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reflects the severe illiquidity and 1¢ spread rather than genuine expected value, making this contract unsuitable for serious traders. With only 33 days until the May 19 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, the market is approaching resolution with minimal liquidity ($7.86 open interest) and extreme realized volatility (8,804%), indicating highly speculative positioning rather than informed consensus.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the GA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x29cb08b01914d66b033c5400eddfec7e479df8df8a7986f958956f1cb89ca5a8 yes 100