Will Gregg Poole be the Republican nominee for GA-09?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Gregg Poole be the Republican nominee for GA-09?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Poole is priced at a severe discount (5¢) with an absurd 21,200% implied yield, suggesting either extreme illiquidity or a near-zero consensus probability among serious traders.
Analysis
Poole is priced at a severe discount (5¢) with an absurd 21,200% implied yield, suggesting either extreme illiquidity or a near-zero consensus probability among serious traders. The 9¢ spread and minimal $8.35k daily volume indicate this is a thin market where even small trades could move the price dramatically, and the 4,147% realized volatility confirms wild swings—the price dropped 2¢ in just seven days despite the market's neutral regime. With only 33 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this contract faces significant tail risk as the May 19 primary approaches, making the headline yield largely illusory given execution risk.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the GA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x354ddd89ba666a18a0a11eeae1fd976338eacc1895dfe20a43c6cecd8b176ecb yes 100