Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 18¢ reflects a heavily Republican-favored race in Georgia's 12th district, with the No side offering only 40.1% implied yield versus an extreme 831.5% on the Yes side—a stark asymmetry suggesting limited downside risk for GOP backers but outsized potential returns for Democratic optimists. With $14.6k open interest but just $1.8k in 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is relatively thin for a market with 200 days to expiration, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The neutral regime score and minimal 7-day price movement (17¢ to 18¢) suggest the market has settled into a stable view, though the elevated cliff risk index of 5 warrants caution around unexpected political developments in this traditionally Republican seat.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade