Will the Republican Party win the GA-12 House seat?

The Republican position has declined 6 cents over the past week (85¢ to 79¢), suggesting recent polling or political developments may have shifted sentiment toward Democrats in this traditionally competitive Georgia district. The extreme 686.5% implied yield on the "No" side indicates severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns, as the $12.3M open interest with only $768 in 24-hour volume suggests thin order books that could amplify volatility near the November 2026 expiry. The 4 Cliff Risk Index rating warrants caution, as this market may experience sharp repricing as the election approaches and candidate quality or district fundamentals become clearer.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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