Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?

Seán Kyne's odds have collapsed dramatically from 25¢ to 4¢ over seven days, suggesting a major shift in market sentiment following Catherine Connolly's election as Irish President. The extreme 2512% implied yield on the "Yes" side paired with near-zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the market likely reflecting either new information about Kyne's candidacy or a flight of bullish positions. With 349 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, this remains a highly volatile and thinly-traded market where large moves could occur on minimal volume.

Resolution rules

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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