Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?

This market is pricing in only a 14% probability that gold settles above $6,000 by June 2026—requiring a roughly 50% rally from current spot prices around $4,000—despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 3,031% on the Yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or extreme tail risk aversion. The 19¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate dangerously low liquidity for a market with $6.7M open interest and 74 days to expiry, making the price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 592% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (6/10) signal this contract is pricing in substantial uncertainty, but the dramatic disconnect between the low probability and the astronomical Yes-side yield warrants caution before treating this as a genuine market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

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