Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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8¢
Bid/Ask 7/8¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $29,796.264·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
0x04a83249c976c072e7795b7a00e35ff42ab4c68cf55455ce14d61c2025ff4ddd
7-day price147 snapshots · 3 regime
12¢8¢ current
Apr 87¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1658.1%
IY (No) 12.5%
Adj IY 829%
CRI 12
Overround 0.7%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1658.1%
IY (No)12.5%
Adj IY829%
CRI12
Overround0.7%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:25:03 PM
Observability lowEvent type data_release
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x04a83249c976c072e7795b7a00e35ff42ab4c68cf55455ce14d61c2025ff4ddd yes 100

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