Will no one dissent the April Fed decision?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at just 4¢, implying near-unanimity at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, yet the astronomical 92,831% implied yield on the "Yes" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity distortion given only $5,376 in open interest. The sharp price decline from 5¢ to 3¢ over seven days combined with the 2,365% realized volatility and elevated 32 Cliff Risk Index suggest this thin market is experiencing erratic swings as it approaches the 13-day expiration, making it unreliable for directional conviction.

Resolution rules

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for April 28-29, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on April 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade