Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?

The market is pricing a 27% probability of two or more dissents at the April 2026 Fed decision, but the extreme 7762% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests severe mispricing or liquidity constraints rather than genuine conviction. With only $2.59 in 24-hour volume against $3.19M open interest and a 6¢ spread, the thin liquidity makes the price unreliable, and the 1032% realized volatility indicates this contract has experienced wild swings that may not reflect fundamental expectations about Fed dissent patterns. The market closes in 13 days with high information arrival (4.9 events/hour), so the price could shift meaningfully as we approach the April 28-29 FOMC meeting announcement.

Resolution rules

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for April 28-29, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on April 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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