Will three people dissent the April Fed decision?

The 6¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of three dissents at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 47,840% implied yield with only 12 days to expiry—a classic tail-risk setup. The 910% realized volatility and modest 24-hour volume of $360.67K suggest this is a thin, speculative market where the extreme yield may not represent genuine edge but rather illiquidity pricing a rare outcome. With the decision occurring on April 29 and resolution imminent, any late-breaking economic data or Fed communications could trigger sharp repricing, though the neutral regime and declining 7-day price trend (7¢ to 6¢) suggest market confidence in consensus remains stable.

Resolution rules

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for April 28-29, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on April 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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