How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing in near-certainty (96%) that US oil production will exceed 13.75 million barrels per day by year-end 2026, yet the extreme 1032.9% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or structural illiquidity issues.
Analysis
This market is pricing in near-certainty (96%) that US oil production will exceed 13.75 million barrels per day by year-end 2026, yet the extreme 1032.9% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or structural illiquidity issues. With only $444.04 in open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 7-cent spread on a 96-cent contract, this appears to be a dead market where the No position is vastly undervalued relative to tail risk—the 19.2% annualized yield on Yes doesn't compensate for the liquidity desert and 259-day duration. The flat 7-day price action and elevated cliff risk index (7/10) indicate this contract may be vulnerable to sharp repricing if production data or geopolitical events shift expectations.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. produces at least 13.75 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBARRELS-26-13.75 yes 100