How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $83 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 83¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $83 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 83¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The massive 563% implied yield on the "No" side suggests severe mispricing—either the market dramatically underestimates US production falling below 13.90 million barrels per day, or the illiquidity is creating a distorted probability. The recent 3¢ price decline over 7 days combined with the wide 7¢ spread indicates thin order books and low conviction among participants.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. produces at least 13.90 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBARRELS-26-13.90 yes 100