Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 5¢, implying Republicans will hold precisely 28-29 governorships after 2026—a narrow band that represents only about 27-28% of all U.S. governorships and sits well below their current position. The astronomical 3,467% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with zero 24-hour volume and $16K open interest suggests this is a low-liquidity trap market where the extreme pricing may reflect thin order books rather than genuine probability assessment. With 200 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 2,161%, the market exhibits classic signs of illiquidity-driven mispricing, making this unsuitable for serious position-taking without significant counterparty risk.

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

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