Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 24¢ price implying only a 24% probability for Republicans holding exactly 22-23 governorships, yet the implied yield on the "Yes" side reaches an extraordinary 578%—suggesting either severe illiquidity distortion or significant market skepticism about this narrow outcome range. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $12.6M open interest indicates this is a stale, illiquid position where the spread (1¢) masks underlying pricing dysfunction; the 729% realized volatility and 2.88 vol ratio further confirm extreme uncertainty and potential mispricing relative to fundamentals. With 200 days to expiry and a recent 4¢ price rise from 20¢, this appears to be a speculative trap where the narrow 22-23 range is genuinely unlikely (Republicans currently hold 27 governorships), making the low price rational despite the eye-popping yield metrics.

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

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Regime

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