Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

The 23¢ price reflects a 23% probability for United Russia capturing 325-339 seats, but the 747% implied yield on the Yes side signals extreme underpricing relative to the No side's 74.5% yield, suggesting potential market inefficiency or heavy skew toward the broader outcome space. With only $149.55 in 24-hour volume against $11.5M open interest and a 6¢ spread, liquidity is notably thin for the position size, creating execution risk despite 155 days to expiry. The realized volatility of 1366% and sharp 7-day price movement from 16¢ to 24¢ indicate this is a highly contested range, possibly reflecting uncertainty about whether United Russia will fall short of or exceed this specific band in the 2026 election.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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