Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume shows a sharp 19% price decline over seven days (16¢ to 13¢), suggesting weakening conviction in Coinbase exceeding $1B in 2026 token raises despite an extreme 869% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume shows a sharp 19% price decline over seven days (16¢ to 13¢), suggesting weakening conviction in Coinbase exceeding $1B in 2026 token raises despite an extreme 869% implied yield on the Yes side. The 10¢ bid-ask spread and $1.17M open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify volatility, while the 949% realized volatility and 3.10 vol ratio signal significant historical price swings relative to current implied volatility. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears underpriced relative to its risk profile, though the lack of recent trading activity raises questions about whether this reflects genuine market consensus or simply abandoned positions.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1eaa3169b6a2ff38e91b07e7306edcec6982b6ceb616d737f244423902f5774f yes 100