Will the Republican Party win the IA-04 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing IA-04 as heavily favored at 89¢, implying an 89% GOP win probability, but the market shows concerning illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $15,817 in open interest despite a tight 2¢ spread. The extreme yield asymmetry—22.6% for Yes versus 1476.8% for No—combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 8 suggests this market may suffer from thin liquidity and potential mispricing on the underdog side, making the No position potentially attractive for contrarian bettors willing to accept execution risk over the next 200 days.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade