Will the Republican Party win the IL-08 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $16k open interest, suggesting the 9¢ price may not reflect true consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp moves once trading resumes. The asymmetric implied yields—1,846% for Yes versus 18% for No—indicate the market is pricing in a heavily favored Democratic hold in this Illinois district, consistent with historical voting patterns in IL-08. With 200 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 10, this contract carries significant tail risk and should be monitored closely for any shifts in the district's political landscape or candidate announcements.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade