Will the Democratic Party win the IL-12 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a Democratic probability of just 8¢ despite IL-12 being a historically competitive district, generating an extraordinary 2099% implied yield for Yes positions. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $21.5k open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests illiquidity is preventing price discovery, likely explaining why the market hasn't corrected toward fundamentals. With 200 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 12, this appears to be a classic thin-market anomaly where the deeply depressed price reflects lack of trading activity rather than genuine conviction about Democratic prospects.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade