Will the Democratic Party win the IL-17 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 88¢ reflects a heavily favored outcome with 201 days to expiry, yet the market shows concerning illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8.1M open interest and a wide 3¢ spread. The extreme implied yield asymmetry (24.8% for Yes vs. 1331.9% for No) combined with 458% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggests this market may be mispriced or subject to low-probability tail risk scenarios, warranting caution for large position entries.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade