Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat?

The Democratic contract for IN-05 has rallied 3 cents over the past week to 19¢, pricing in only a 19% win probability despite 200 days until resolution, which suggests either strong Republican lean in this district or early confidence in GOP retention. The 778% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the modest 42.8% yield on No, indicating substantial asymmetric risk premium that may reflect either deep uncertainty or thin liquidity ($14.6k open interest on a binary outcome). With only $687.61 in 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread, this market lacks the depth to confidently validate the pricing, and the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 4 warrants caution about potential late-stage volatility as the November 2026 election approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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