Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

The 40¢ price reflects a modest Democratic lean in Iowa's 2026 Senate race, though the asymmetric implied yields (273.9% for Yes vs. 121.7% for No) suggest the market is pricing in significant uncertainty or potential mispricing between the two outcomes. With only $11.48 in 24-hour volume against $38k open interest, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk for larger trades. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score indicate the market has stabilized around current valuations, though the 2-point Cliff Risk Index warrants monitoring for late-stage volatility as we approach the 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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