Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

The market has experienced dramatic price appreciation over seven days (13¢ to 33¢), driving an extraordinary 5404% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 14 days to expiry. The 2.07 volatility ratio and 1331% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and modest 2 cliff risk index indicate the market hasn't fully priced in tail scenarios. With $126k in 24-hour volume against just $24k open interest, liquidity appears healthy relative to the tight 1¢ spread, though the high information arrival rate (4.1/h) suggests traders are actively monitoring developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Regime

Trade