Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Polymarket.

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79¢
Bid/Ask 77/80¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $217.76·OI $20,819.172·195d remaining
0xb8b5349814450b8bba2ecdda2eeb9f48bd3c795bfb858bedf7a383712b877743
7-day price101 snapshots · 10 regime
86¢79¢ current
Apr 865¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 49.7%
IY (No) 703.6%
Adj IY 352%
CRI 4
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)49.7%
IY (No)703.6%
Adj IY352%
CRI4

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.477
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:27:26 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xb8b5349814450b8bba2ecdda2eeb9f48bd3c795bfb858bedf7a383712b877743 yes 100

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