Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?

Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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43¢
Bid/Ask 37/48¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $0·OI $2,348.171·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining
0xbf4c5977527c49c7d150c10060d233316912f5a82144b354df173ee3f935bcdf
7-day price1100 snapshots · 3 regime
48¢42¢ current
Apr 831¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 198.3%
IY (No) 104.0%
Adj IY 99%
CRI 1
Overround 0.6%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)198.3%
IY (No)104.0%
Adj IY99%
CRI1
Overround0.6%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
11¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:28:03 PM
Observability mediumEvent type financial
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xbf4c5977527c49c7d150c10060d233316912f5a82144b354df173ee3f935bcdf yes 100

Related concepts

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