Will the Democratic Party win the KS-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9% probability for Democrats in a heavily Republican Kansas district, generating an extraordinary 1,845% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $14,620 in open interest. The 2¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the 10/10 cliff risk index combined with 200 days to expiry suggests this may be a stale or illiquid position that hasn't attracted recent trading activity. The asymmetric yields (1,845% vs 18.1%) indicate strong market skepticism about Democratic viability in KS-01, though the lack of liquidity raises questions about whether this price reflects genuine conviction or simply reflects minimal recent interest in the contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade