Will the Republican Party win the KY-01 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Republican lean in Kentucky's 1st congressional district, with the Yes side priced at 94¢ implying near-certainty of GOP retention. The asymmetric implied yields—11.7% for Republicans versus 2,859.6% for Democrats—reveal severe liquidity imbalance favoring the consensus view, with only $20.6K in open interest and zero 24-hour volume suggesting this is a low-conviction market despite the extreme pricing. The high cliff risk index of 16 combined with 200 days to expiration indicates potential for sharp repricing if political conditions shift, though the neutral regime score suggests current pricing reflects stable fundamentals rather than momentum-driven positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade