Ledger IPO closing market cap above $2B?

This Ledger IPO market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $285K open interest, and the 52¢ spread represents a massive 130% bid-ask gap that likely reflects pricing uncertainty rather than genuine two-sided demand. The 40¢ price implies only 40% probability of a $2B+ market cap at IPO, yet the Yes side offers an outsized 91.5% annualized yield, suggesting the market may be underpricing Ledger's valuation potential or the contract is simply too illiquid to trade efficiently. With 624 days to expiry and realized volatility exceeding 1100%, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal price discovery rather than an actively traded prediction market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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