Will Le Havre be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Le Havre be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing May 30, 2026. Le Havre is priced at a modest 13% relegation probability with just 43 days to resolution, yet the Yes side shows an extraordinary 5,678.7% implied yield—a massive red flag indicating extreme mispricing or structural arbitrage opportunity.
Analysis
Le Havre is priced at a modest 13% relegation probability with just 43 days to resolution, yet the Yes side shows an extraordinary 5,678.7% implied yield—a massive red flag indicating extreme mispricing or structural arbitrage opportunity. The 3¢ spread is tight relative to the price, but the $1.1M open interest against only $15.4K daily volume suggests illiquidity could be masking true market sentiment, and the Cliff Risk Index of 7 signals elevated tail risk near expiration. With the season outcome likely already determined or nearly so by late May 2026, this market appears to be pricing in either late-season uncertainty or a significant disconnect between the Yes and No sides' risk assessments.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by Ligue 1 following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0xffc12401de3806de6abde626f2611d66aa6d4eb00f1d98d0d95b21eaf826c774 yes 100