Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?
0x304d0fa4874853ab011215531cdd12d05f05a4e4ffe7fc3da40076b742dc358f · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 260 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican? · match confidence 0.67 · close-time delta 39h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 498.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1025% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 4.51 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.4/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 498% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
209 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x304d0fa4874853ab011215531cdd12d05f05a4e4ffe7fc3da40076b742dc358f yes 100